Monday, September 5, 2016

Double Bogus When Lit


[source: made in China dot com]
Let F represent some fact which has recently come to light and which reflects badly on me for some reason.

F could be an event that has happened, a confidential document that has leaked, the result of a scientific experiment, or any other inconvenient fact, where "inconvenient" means "inconvenient for me."

Maybe F makes me look stupid or negligent; maybe F implies that I've done something immoral or illegal. Not that I would do anything immoral or illegal, but just suppose.

If I'm pressed to explain F, I might not even want to try, especially if I can't invent a "good" explanation for F, where "good" means "good for me," i.e. plausible and exculpatory.

So I might talk about G instead, where G is some other fact, some other event, something else entirely, anything but F.

I wouldn't really be hoping to fool you into thinking that G happened and F did not, although I wouldn't mind if you made that mistake, and I would be subtly encouraging you in that direction.

But I would primarily be trying to draw your attention away from F, using G as the lure, so to speak. Something flashy twinkling in the distance: Look over here! Go ahead, take a bite! Gotcha!

I call this approach the Double Bogus Attack, or simply Double Bogus. And I find it noteworthy because even though it's remarkably transparent, it's also remarkably effective, at least some of the time.

It's Bogus because I'm not answering the question. And it's easy to see that I'm not answering the question because I'm talking about G rather than F.

But it's Double Bogus because I'm not even trying to answer the question. I am deliberately talking about G rather than F. And this is easy to see, too, if you're looking for it.

For this reason, liars don't usually resort to Double Bogus tactics unless their position is so weak that they have no other choice.

On the other hand, Double Bogus tactics are sometimes more effective than they ought to be. You can easily be fooled by it, if you're not looking for it.

And if you're looking for it, you're probably paranoid, and therefore delusional.